AlacraBlog

SIIA Previews

Larry Schwartz, Ed Keating and David Silverman did an excellent job putting together this year's edition of SIIA Previews.  Bambi Francisco, formerly of MarketWatch, now CEO of Vator.TV, moderated the opening panel on the Business & Investment Climate.  Panelists were Robert Levitan, CEO of Pando; Brian Hirsch an MD at Greenhill SAVP; David Silverman of PwC; and Ed Reitler a partner at Reitler Brown & Rosenblatt. Highlights of this panel:
Bambi mentioned two trends she sees in the market - the prominence of angel networks (taking the place of VCs) and the "mediaization" of CEOs.  In other words, CEOs are increasingly using blogs to talk to their stakeholders and customers.  Ed Reitler commented that start-up companies and the VC communities are somewhat separated from current economic conditions.  Brian Hirsch said that the business climate in irrelevant to innovation.  Great companies can be started in terrible economic times; only valuations will be affected. Robert Levitan and David Silverman commented that VCs want "known" business models as well as a revenue stream and, if possible, profits. (I found this difficult to accept; it seems that some of the most interesting businesses, especially with the risk-reward characteristics desired by  VCs, do not have established business models when they're funded.)
The most interesting new business presentations were Linkstorm, which is a new advertising technology company and Courtroom Connect which provides digital video coverage of major trials and depositions.  The main SIIA event is Wednesday and Thursday.

SIIA Previews This Afternoon, IIS Wednesday & Thursday

I'm looking forward to SIIA Previews this afternoon, the "prequel" to the Information Industry Summit which is tomorrow and Thursday at Cipriani on 42nd Street.  I'm on the Information Industry Innovators panel on Thursday with Jim Brock of Attributor and Darrell Gunter of Collexis.  The line-up for SIIA this year is terrific; keynotes by Tom Glocer and Gordon Crovitz and panel appearances by Ken Auletta, Alan Patricof, Patrick Spain, Mike Tansey, and Robin Johnson, among others. 

What Next For Stocks?

I received several calls after the market "broke the neckline" and fell from 13,000 to a intra-day low of 11,509 on January 22: "What happens next?"  According to Edwards and Magee:

"The maximum indications (how low it can go) are quite another matter, for which no simple rules can be laid down.  Factors that enter into this are the extent of the previous rise, the size, volume, and duration of the Head-and-Shoulders Formation, the general market Primary Trend (very important), and the distance that prices can fall before they come to an established Support Zone." 

While the market appears to have found some support the past few days due to the Fed cut rates, my experience is that often there is a retracement to the neckline (a rally) and then the market falls again.  Back to my day job.

Introducing Alacra's Premium Content Ad Network

Internet advertising has improved in many ways over the past few years.  The combination of contextual and behavioral targeting has increased the relevancy of ads online. 

Yet most internet advertising is focused on product sales.  That’s great if you manage a product-focused website, but doesn’t work as well for information-based sites such as those offering business or financial commentary.  For example, when a user lands on a page talking about Apple, Inc. on a financial or business website, they are most likely doing research on Apple the company (ticker AAPL) and not looking to buy an iPod.  Unfortunately, most of today’s contextual advertising platforms can’t pick up that nuance and will at best serve up ads for iPods.

Alacra today announced the introduction of the Premium Content Ad Network (“PCAN”).  PCAN has been developed to help publishers of business and financial information better monetize their websites.

For a blog or website covering stocks, PCAN will serve up contextually relevant ads which contain links to premium business information on the company being written about.  Leveraging the content in the Alacra data warehouse, PCAN automatically generates ads consisting of selected premium business information based upon the content of the page the visitor is viewing,   In the above example, a user landing on a page for Apple, Inc. might see a list of recent credit or investment research, conference call transcripts, company profiles or other content about Apple the company.

For web publishers, PCAN is complementary to existing advertising programs.  Publishers can continue to run display ads and use ad networks such as Google AdSense for text ads.  PCAN is a pay-per-action network; leveraging the Alacra affiliate program, participating websites will receive a share of revenue on any content sales.

Our first partners for PCAN are EDGAR Online and blog the Livermore Report.  You can view PCAN ads, for example, on the following pages:

• EDGAR Online page for Citigroup
• Livermore Reports page for IBM

Publishers interested in learning more about the Premium Content Ad Network should contact Ron-dot-Waksman at Alacra-dot-com.

Here's a full sample of a PCAN ad for Merrill Lynch & Co.

M&A Prospects for 2008

We do a significant amount of business with the M&A areas of investment banks.  Based on the day-to-day usage of a number of databases we have under license, we can get a pretty good feel for how much global M&A activity is taking place.   The numbers are pretty reliable.  Using these metrics, back in September I was planning for a rough fourth quarter and beginning of 2008.  September is usually one of our strongest months but usage was off by more than 30%.  This presaged the weakness late in 2007.  But the numbers have bounced back a bit in the past few weeks (even accounting for the holidays) and, as we've seen, there have been a number of deals announced recently. 
Despite the turmoil in the equity and credit markets, which has affected private equity buyers (see chart below), there still  seems to be reasonable activity and lots of opinions about what will happen this year, which I have provided links to here.

• The Wall Street Journal's Deal Journal posted M&A in 2007: Inside the Numbers on January 3.
• Also on January 3, the FT published Financial Services to Fuel M&A, which predicts that private equity interest in financial services will play a big M&A role in 2008.
• Mergermarket believes somewhat the opposite: there should be Low Expectations for Bank M&A in the First Half of 2008
• McKinsey, in their premium article Deal Making in 2007 - Is The Boom Over? says that "suggestions that the M&A boom has met its demise may be premature. Most of the decline in M&A since August was concentrated in private-equity deals; corporate acquisitions continued apace."
• Deloitte Research just published Strategic Acquisitions Amid Business Uncertainty: Charting a Course for Your Company's M&A which is a guide for strategic acquirers.
• AdMedia Partners recently released Prospects for Media Mergers & Acquisitions.

 

Giving Feels Good - Operation Santa Claus II

(posted by Carol Ann Thomas, Alacra Marketing Manager)

In December, Alacra once again took part in the US Postal Service's Operation Santa Claus, a program that's been running for almost 100 years, bringing gifts and plenty of hope to needy families all over the country.  As promised, Alacra increased our participation to three classrooms and our staff gleefully became the secret Santas to 60 kingdergartners in and around New York City.

And yet again, I'm proud to report that the Alacra staff outdid themselves participating, rushing to my desk and selecting not just one, but in many cases, two or three wish lists to fulfill.  It took us several days just to wrap everything.  I was thrilled to be there to see the look on the teachers' faces when they saw the loads of presents we came bearing just before Christmas, they were clearly overwhelmed with gratitude.

At the very least, reading those letters to Santa can be a sobering experience, as I found out myself early in December when I ventured to the NYC Post Office.  While there are the occasional requests for iPods and PSP's, there are far more 5 year olds asking for "a bag of potato chips" and 11 year old boys just wanting a foot massage for their mom who they love so much but who "is so tired because she works 2 jobs and her feet hurt A LOT".  I was quickly moved to tears reading those letters, as were the dozen men and women with me doing the same.

True self-actualization is the pinnacle of Maslow's Heirarchy of Needs, but for most of us it is not a height we always reach in our everyday lives. Thankfully though, simple acts of generosity and kindness, respect and love for our communities and the children in them can make the climb a whole lot easier.

Stock Market Follow-Up

Last week I highlighted the ominous head-and-shoulders top in the major US stock indices.  So now that the neckline has clearly been broken, the textbook say there's a least another 500 Dow points to go on the downside.  The textbook is Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards and Magee and you can "Search Inside This Book" on Amazon. 

Research Recap Unveils Top Blog Posts of 2007

When we launched Research Recap last year, we had few preconceptions about the specific topics which we’d cover.  By its charter, Research Recap editors track research across many categories, writing posts on those reports they find most compelling.

By early fall, it became clear that a recurring topic would be the subprime mortgage defaults and its spillover into related sectors and eventually the economy as a whole.  Looking back at 2007, eight of the ten most widely-read Research Recap posts were focused on the subprime mortgage market implosion.

And while the assumption is that most people stop paying attention to the market by mid-December, our most widely read post, US “Housing Bust” Effects to Linger Until 2009, based upon a report issued by Moody's Economy.com, was published December 20.  Other posts among our top 10 highlighted reports issued by CreditSights, the International Monetary Fund, Fitch Research,  the Wharton School of Business, Standard & Poor's and  Salary.com among others.   

The full top-10 list is available on the Research Recap site and can also be found here.

So, once a topic such as subprime mortgages has been picked up by the mainstream media, is there still a need for coverage from specialized services like Research Recap?  We think the answer is yes.  In fact, time and time again in 2007, Research Recap surfaced research reports on topics that were later picked up in the mainstream media.  For example, in October, Research Recap highlighted several reports suggesting the possibility of the subprime crisis spilling over into commercial real estate.  That same topic was covered two months later by major business publications.  Similarly, Research Recap has been out in front on topics such as the questionable wisdom of using food crops for biofuels and bailout plans for complex financial instruments such as SIVs. 

For those unfamiliar with it, Research Recap is a free service that highlights and abstracts compelling credit, investment, economic, market and industry research.  Research Recap is published in blog format and is also available as a free RSS feed.  Much of the underlying research is available free of charge, while some is available for a fee, either through the Alacra Store or from individual content provider sites. 

Each Friday, Research Recap publishes a Research Zeitgeist post, highlighting the most widely read and other notable posts from the prior week.  Another regular feature of Research Recap are our highly alliterative Research Recap Research Roundups, which provide quick links and summaries to multiple views on a given topic.

Publishers seeking to have their content reviewed by Research Recap may contact the Research Recap editor at editor-at-researchrecap-dot-com.

2008 Alacra Sales Conference

Alacra's global sales team just returned from 3 days on Long Island for our annual sales conference.  We had an excellent conference; the biggest surprise was the popularity of indoor shuffleboard.  Anyone know any bars in Manhattan or London with a table? 

I'm posting a few pictures of the team here; we'll post an album shortly.  There's Roy, me, Catherine and Jim at the shuffleboard table; Ben kicking my butt at the pool table; Gail, Owen, Colin and Justin; Jalpa, Colin and Tara; and Carol Ann and Fran, our event planners extraordinaire.

SIIA Previews

The SIIA has just announced the list of companies which will be presenting at the 2008 SIIA Previews.  Previews is part of the annual SIIA Information Industry Summit, and provides a forum for early stage content and content technology companies to present to potential investors, partners and clients. 

The companies showcased at last year’s Previews included a number of emerging leaders such as Generate, Near-Time and Attributor, among others.  Previews is chaired by Larry Schwartz, president of Alacra partner Newstex.

This year’s keynote will be delivered by co-Chairman of Alley Corp and former DoubleClick CEO Kevin Ryan.

Presenting companies include:

• ArchieMD is a physician-led education company that has developed the most extensive scientifically credible library of health and science imagery in the world
• Courtroom Connect is leveraging the "rich media" revolution by providing digital video coverage of major trials, depositions, orals, and administrative hearings, and establishing video databanks for on demand retrieval;
• FeeDisclosure.com, which provide consumers with transparency into the fees surrounding real estate and mortgage transactions;
• ExpoTV,has built the largest platform for authentic, user-generated video product reviews. The library holds 150,000 videos uploaded by unbiased consumers;
• Health Monitoring Systems, which provides analytics of aggregated healthcare providers;
• Linkstorm, who provide navigation on top of advertising;
• Vator.tv, a professional network for pitching business ideas;
• Lingospot, a search and aggregation service that enables publishers to more easily cross-link relevant content;
• Keibi Technologies, a user-generated content enabler, offering technology for the moderation and classification of UGC; and
• TutorVista has a content creation group producing top quality eLearning courseware, simulations, animations and paper-based curriculum.

To register for SIIA Previews, visit the SIIA Previews page.