Yesterday's FT and Finfacts each had an article announcing KPMG's view that M&A activity is peaking. KPMG uses their Global M&A Predictor to forecast M&A trends.
The forecast, based on a detailed analysis of KPMG Corporate Finance's Global M&A Predictor – a forward looking index of 1,000 leading companies' net debt to EBITDA ratios and Price Earnings ratios1
– reveals that pressure on the accelerator pedal has come off, as
regards international asset prices, with 12 month forward PE valuations
(the valuation ratio of share price to estimated earnings per share)
increasing only marginally.2
KPMG's research also highlights that significant cash and debt capacity remain3.
However, a modest decline in deal appetite and confidence, rather than
capacity or average deal value, is expected to prevail in the coming
months.
KPMG Corporate Finance's Global 1,000 M&A Predictor suggests
that the current M&A cycle is about to peak, and believes that
Dealogic's latest data, which shows increasing average deal size on
lower volumes, indicates a "final hurrah" with fewer, but larger deals,
being done. Importantly, due to the relatively sound market
fundamentals and generally strong corporate balance sheets, KPMG
believes that, in contrast to the steep dot-com collapse of 2000, the
slow-down will be gradual.
But Citigroup's Robert Buckland said in a Financial News article that he saw "no reason deal volumes in the second half of this year would not exceed the
record level of the first half." The FT's Alphaville goes on to quote Buckland as saying
The derating of equity and re-rating of corporate debt
(through a combination of low government yields and falling credit
spreads)has offered an historic
opportunity to the global private equity industry. It is no surprise to us that
the buyout industry was not a big player in the last M&A boom. Their trade
(issue corporate debt to buy assets in the public equity markets) made no sense
when the corporate bond yield was 500bp higher than the earnings yield —
equities were too expensive relative to debt. But now that gap has closed and we
areseeing one of the biggest arbitrage trades in financial market history —
borrow off the debt markets to buy in the equity markets. Recent movements in
asset valuations have done little to threaten the opportunity highlighted (in
the graph above). Corporates who use cash or debt to buy other corporates are,
in effect, putting on the same trade.
Given that many of our clients are bulge bracket and boutique investment banks, we have a handful of our own indicators of M&A activity and right now we're seeing a typical summer slow down. But nothing indicates that deal volumes are set to contract. Hopefully this isn't wishful thinking.